If October And November Are Full Of Snow And Frost
If October and November be Snow and Frost, then January and
February are like to be open and mild.
AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we
need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with
my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to
study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon
Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the
Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by
the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what
we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with
the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order
to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows
that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a
constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of
the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living
Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of
Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River
Nile, by the Heat of the Sun in Egypt, which might very well pass
for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the
like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in
which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.
AN Italian Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a
simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass
Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it
putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how
careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment
was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in
putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun
can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By
the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out
a Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for
granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account
for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom,
and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and
foolish Notions.
TO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly
a curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather,
and to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The
Business is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of
Knowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very
evident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation.
This is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen
here given us, of one Man's Observations, is enough to convince us
that a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way
towards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to
understand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and
Alterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this
Pains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already
discovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the
Opportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right
Thing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such
Observations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as
possible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our
Shepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at
least secure them that Regard which they deserve.
THERE remains therefore nothing more for me to do in order to recommend
these Observations, but to say somewhat with Respect to the Utility of
the Alterations of the Weather in general, and in particular; in order
to satisfy the Reader that there is nothing of Chance or Accident in
such Alterations, but that they are governed in every Respect by the
same unerring Wisdom, that at first framed and constantly preserves the
Universe. All Weathers are at sometimes reasonable, which shews that
they are good in themselves, and only accidentally evil. We ought not
to measure Things of a general Nature, by particular Rules. If by the
Direction of Providence the Succession of Seasons be such, as that they
turn to the good of Mankind in the whole; it is no Objection to, or
Diminution of Providence that this Succession of Seasons should at
different Times be injurious to certain Countries, because this may
likewise be accounted for.
AS to Particulars we will begin with the Air, which is composed of
Exhalations of all earthly Bodies, as well solid as fluid, as also of
Fire, whether of the Sun or the Stars, or of earthly Bodies burnt, or
of Fire breaking out from the Entrails of the Earth, and ascending, and
though it be thus compounded, and hath swimming in it Multitudes of
other Things, yet we find that it is perfectly wholesome, is the Spring
of Motion, and of Life to Men, and all other Animals; so that though we
cannot account for, and perhaps have not a Power of comprehending how
such a mixed Body can be rendered salutary: yet since it is certain,
that so it is, we have no Right to complain either of the evil
Consequences that sometimes attend the Exhalations with which it is
filled, or the Accidents that flow from the frequent Alterations that
happen therein, because these have a visible Tendency to the general
good, and are apparently necessary to the Preservation of the Universe,
so that before we can have any Title to find fault, we must first shew
that we are capable of understanding them in their full Extent, and as
this is impossible, it follows that must be unreasonable.
BUT this appears still the more clearly, when it is considered, that
all such Alterations may be shewn even from the Light of Reason to be
generally useful, notwithstanding they sometimes appear troublesome and
noxious. For Instance, such quick Streams of Air in Motion as we call
Winds, though they sometimes swell into Storms and Tempests, yet are
they of great Benefit to Mankind, by purging the Air, and many other
Conveniences. It is a Proverb at Vienna, that if Austria be not
windy it is sickly; and this Saying is no less true in other
Countries, for by consulting the History of the last great Plague that
raged here in 1666, it will be found that there was in a Manner a dead
Calm during the Time of the Sickness, and it is known in Egypt, where
they have Plagues annually, that the Change of the Wind delivers them
from that Evil. Add to this the great Use of Winds in Navigation, and
reflect on the Benefits that accrue there from, and we shall see no
Cause whatever to doubt that this Motion of the Air is a very wise
Contrivance.
THE Condensation of Vapours, which is the Cause of Rain, is another
great Benefit to the World, in as much as this is very probably
supposed to be the Source of Fountains, Rivers, Lakes, and other
Magazines of fresh Water, without which the Earth would be uninhabitable,
and to which in a very great Measure its Fertility is owing. We ought
likewise to remember that though this be in itself so clear, and at the
same Time so certain, yet there are Countries in the World where it
very seldom rains, as in Egypt, and others where it hardly ever
rains, as in Peru; so that we see there is no raising general
Doctrines upon this Subject, which ought to make us the more tender in
disputing the Will of Providence, or repining when it happens to cross
our own.
THE Uses of Snow are as great though less apparent, of which I shall
mention but three. The first is its preserving Herbs and Grass in the
Winter against the Severity of Frost; secondly, its supplying Water to
Brooks and Rivers; and lastly, its furnishing the Earth with vast
Quantities of Nitre, and thereby conducing greatly to its Fertility,
and perhaps the same thing may be said of Frost, hard Winters being
often succeeded by luxuriant Summers, and thus we find that what in
Appearance causes Scarcity, may in Reality produce Plenty.
LASTLY, even Thunder, however terrible in its Appearance, and sometimes
fatal in its Effects, is nevertheless very useful and beneficial upon
the whole, for this likewise purifies the Air from sulphureous and oily
Exhalations, and the Rains that fall with it fertilize the Earth
exceedingly. It also moderates the Heat as Experience teaches us, for
as it is always gloomy and sultry before Thunder, so it is afterwards
generally cool and pleasant. These Remarks, though very short, may give
the Reader an Opportunity of extending his Observations throughout all
the Variations of Weather, and enable him to discern how useful and
instructive a thing the Study of its Alterations may be, and how
probable it is, that by proper Care and Attention, we may arrive at a
much more useful, as well as a much more certain Knowledge in regard to
the Weather, than hitherto has been attained.
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